Edmond Y. Azadian
Call it with whatever you wish but realize that an intensifying Cold
War is looming on the horizon. The East-West confrontation is gaining
momentum and further developments in that direction may soon get out of
hand.
The US economy recovered remarkably during the last six years,
unemployment was down, the US achieved energy self-sufficiency, yet
President Obama’s rating suffered at home and around the world and some
analysts believe that the election results reflected a referendum on
Obama’s performance. Others believe that low turnout at the polls
— two-thirds of eligible voters stayed home — and the Republican efforts
in portraying Obama’s performance as a failure contributed to the
further loss of House and Senate seats for Democrats and the resulting
takeover of the Republicans in the Senate.
Senator McCain was already a vocal critic of President Obama’s
cautious foreign policy, but now that he will be empowered with the
Senate committee chairmanship, he will convert his words into action and
force the lame-duck presidency into international adventures. A recent
article in the New York Times, describing Mr. McCain’s policies stated
that the latter did not see a war that he did not like. However, there
is a mood swing in the US and even a potential Democratic candidate like
Hillary Clinton has been playing up her hawkish credentials to enhance
her chances. In a recent interview given by former Secretary of State
Henry Kissinger to the German newspaper Der Spiegel, he characterized US
actions in Ukraine as a “fatal mistake” and added that the resulting
Cold War may prove to be “tragic.”
One front of confrontation may be amplifying the rhetoric against
Russia over the Ukraine impasse and the other immediate impact may be
direct US intervention in Syria. The pro-government Turkish Sabah daily
has already hailed gleefully Mr. McCain’s ascendance, predicting that
President Erdogan’s Syria policy will be vindicated by Mr. McCain’s
leadership.
Meanwhile, the Russians have not been sitting idly; after the
takeover of Crimea, they have practically amputated Ukraine by
paralyzing its eastern provinces. But on the global scene, the
Russia-China rapprochement has experienced a dramatic upswing.
Last May, Russia and China had already sealed an energy deal worth
$400 billion, which will deliver annually 38 billion cubic meters of gas
to China through Power of Siberia Pipeline. A second deal is in the
offing to increase the annual delivery of Russian gas to China to 68
billion cubic meters.
A less spoken-about factor which may further deteriorate the
East-West tensions is the financial retaliation against the economic
sanctions which China and Russia may deliver, as major buyers of US
debts.
Of course, a global confrontation may affect many countries and one
of the most vulnerable regions is the Caucasus, where Armenia is
located. Indeed, shifting political trends have already taken wing in
the region.
Recent changes in the Georgian government do not augur well for the
region and turmoil seems to be on the horizon. Armenia and Georgia would
do much better with European integration. But Armenia has already been
trapped by geostrategic determinants while Georgia stayed the course set
by former President Mikhail Saakashvili, even at the expense of
territorial loss. The Georgian Dream Coalition, which swept to power
during the last parliamentary elections, vowed to continue its
Euro-Atlantic course. But a news article in the November 6 issue of New
York Times states: “Free Democrats, a pro-Western political party,
abandoned Georgia’s governing coalition on Wednesday, deepening a
political crisis in the former Soviet republic that critics fear may
slow the country’s path toward integration with the West.”
What actually happened was that the leader of Free Democrats and
member of the Georgian Dream Coalition, Irakli Alasania, was removed
from his position as defense minister, on charges of corruption, while
visiting France to consolidate his country’s ties with Europe. He was
negotiating arms deals with the foreign ministers of France and Germany.
Foreign Minister Maya Pandjikidze and Minister for European Integration
Alexiy Petriashvili tendered their resignations in protest. Alasania
accuses Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvilli of fabricating the scandal
for political gain, in order to derail the country from its course of
European integration. Although the prime minister has denied the
accusation, his denial remains questionable as his policies all along
have been geared toward reconciliation with Russia. The political
atmosphere is poisoned and it looks like the “Georgian Dream” is mired
in a Georgian nightmare.
The US reaction was muted but charged. Foggy Bottom Spokesperson Jen
Psaki expressed her concern over the resignations and praised Alasania
for his contributions to Georgia and to its partnership with the US. She
reiterated her wish to see Georgia on a Euro-Atlantic path.
Now, there is talk of a Ukraine-style Maidan, which resulted in the loss of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk from Ukraine.
The potential problem areas in Georgia are indicated to be Ajaria and
Javakhk; the first region is the transit route for Armenians doing
business with Turkey and the second one is densely populated by the
Armenians. Thus, any conflict in these two regions will spill over into
Armenia.
A more ominous article signed by Mikhail Chernov has appeared in the
online Russian newspaper Lenta.ru, under the title “Russia will reach
border with Armenia.” The article also indicates that “Russia is
increasingly interested in the construction of a Transcaucasian
automobile junction which will link the Russian North Caucasus via North
and South Ossetia, Georgia, with Armenia and Iran.”
There is also talk of reviving the Abkhazian railway system. But
without Georgia’s cooperation, that system cannot extend into Armenia.
Either the Tbilisi government has to fall in line with Russian plans or
another war has to force Georgia to concede.
Now that Armenia has joined the Eurasian Union, it would have been
convenient for Yerevan to have trouble-free access to Russia’s border.
But to achieve that end through another war will be too costly for all
the parties concerned.
Developments in Azerbaijan have also come to compound the situation
on Armenia’s borders. After the meeting of Presidents Serge Sargisian
and Ilham Aliyev in Paris, at the invitation of French President
François Hollande, incidents on the line of contact have been reduced
dramatically. That was considered to be the outcome of Paris talks and
would have been a welcome development for Armenia. But it turns out that
the sudden lull is the result of changes in Azerbaijan’s relations with
the West and with Russia. Until now, Azerbaijan had been sitting on the
fence and teasing the West and the East at the same time.
Recently, the pro-government Azeri news portal Azertaz came out with
critical comments about British Petroleum, which is a major investor in
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has worked out new deals with Russia to export
its gas to Europe through the latter’s territory. Perhaps that is the
main reason which has prompted the US and European governments to
sharpen their criticisms of Azerbaijan’s abominable human rights track
record. That seems to be an indication of deteriorating relations with
the West. In the meantime, Russia has been arming Azerbaijan at an
alarming scale to entice President Aliyev to join the Eurasian Union.
And finally, also in the equation is Karabagh’s destiny.
Analysts believe that Russia may cede Karabagh to Azerbaijan in
exchange for Baku’s joining the Eurasian Union. Although the deputy
speaker of Azerbaijan’s parliament has ruled out the possibility,
stating that “Azerbaijan cannot join the Eurasian Union in exchange for
Karabagh.”
Although there is a tug-of-war going on in the Caucasus between the
West and Russia and Turkey has a treaty obligation as NATO member to
help the West, recent developments have demonstrated that Ankara may
exercise some underhanded politics, all along pretending to uphold NATO
interests. Russia has also been selling arms to Turkey and holding joint
military exercises in the Black Sea. Both parties have decided to
improve trade relations to the level of $100 billion annually. Thus, as
Azerbaijan’s big brother, Ankara may play the Russian card in pushing
Baku into Moscow’s embrace. Also, Turkey has a role to play if and when
Mr. Putin decides to control the region of Ajaria in Georgia because
Turkey has more clout in that province than the Tbilisi central
government.
The East-West confrontation has been exacerbating the web of
conflicts in the Caucasus and the Yerevan government has to navigate
very cautiously through those stormy waters.
The bare fact is that Armenia has almost no leverage over the
situation in the region which will determine its destiny. The only
option that Armenia has is to have the internal cohesion to face the
tremendous odds.
The Caucasus has historically been a complex region, and this time around is no exception.
Let us hope for the best as the storm gathers around Armenia.
"The Armenian Mirror-Spectator," November 15, 2014
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