Viken Khlgatyan
Armen Sahakyan
After inheriting the
half-a-century-old reins of power in 2003 from his deceased father,
Heydar Aliyev, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev has tried to position
his country as a reliable producer of energy and counter-terrorism
partner for the West. At the same time he has pursued rapid
militarization, anti-Armenianism, and the consolidation of a strongman
regime.
The United States government annually waives Section 907
of the Freedom Support Act which would deny direct aid to the
Azerbaijani government. But the West in general has overlooked the
anti-democratic and jingoist nature of Azerbaijan in the post 9-11 world
for two reasons – geography and energy. Located in the Caucasus region,
Azerbaijan borders both Russia and Iran – two countries with which the
West, particularly the United States, has traditionally had tense and
even hostile relations. For years rumors have swirled that Azerbaijan
made its territory available to the U.S. Intelligence Community so that
it could launch some of its operations against Iran and Russia from
there. Moreover, Azerbaijan provided an alternate transit route to ship
supplies to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in
Afghanistan through the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). Such rumors
are not necessarily baseless given Azerbaijan’s earlier history of
hosting Al Qaeda training camps within its territory before 9-11 and the
use of Afghan and Chechen Mujahedeen against the Republic of Artsakh
during the Karabakh War. The very same terrorists that the Aliyev senior
regime helped to train were among the radicals the U.S.-led coalition
has been fighting against since 2001.
Sitting
on a modest supply of natural gas and oil, Azerbaijan played up the
1990s-era hype surrounding the purported massive amounts of hydrocarbons
in the Caspian Sea basin – an exaggerated quantity later undermined by
subsequent exploration tests. With Western backing, the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline was built by a BP-led consortium and
put into operation in 2006. In 2010-11 Azerbaijan hit peak oil and since
then has pumped out decreasing volumes of oil, a fact that has publicly
frustrated Aliyev junior.
The American-led shale revolution has not
helped Baku’s predicament. Coupled with declining oil production, 2014
saw the end of the ISAF’s mission in Afghanistan and a mild
rapprochement with Iran - all of which further depreciated the
geopolitical value of Azerbaijan. 2014 also saw the worst crackdown on
democracy, civil society, and human rights activists since Aliyev came
to power. The clampdown culminated with the raid and closure of the
American-financed Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) offices in
Baku and the arrest of the most prominent Azerbaijani investigative
reporter, Khadija Ismayilova. Today, there are close to 100 political
prisoners in Azerbaijan and thousands more fear a similar fate for
expressing their oppositionist views. Ethnic indigenous minorities, such
as Lezgin, Avar, and Talysh people are also repressed. The Republic of
Artsakh helps broadcast a cultural and linguistic Talysh radio channel
from Shushi and is a role model for minority rights to
self-determination.
No one should be surprised by these
developments. Since 2011, the regime has feared being toppled by an Arab
Spring-style movement. Western calls for more transparency and rule of
law in Azerbaijan have only added to the paranoia of the regime elite
who subscribe to the myth that the CIA masterminded the Arab Spring
protests. In order to distract ordinary Azerbaijanis from government
misrule and rally them around the flag of fabricated nationalism,
Azerbaijan has decided to raise tensions along the heavily militarized
border with the Artsakh Republic (Nagorno Karabakh Republic). Although
representatives of Azerbaijan, Artsakh and Armenia signed a ceasefire
agreement in 1994, civilians and soldiers have continued to die in
clashes over the years.
Most recently on November 12th
Azerbaijani armed forces shot down an Artsakh air force helicopter
during a flight exercise – the most aggressive act since the ceasefire
that resulted in 3 Armenian deaths. More deaths have been reported on
both sides since the beginning of this year. A border skirmish that may
lead to a full-scale war is a losing proposition for all sides and
stakeholders, including the West. Artsakh and Armenia have hinted that
the BTC pipeline, which lies just 9 miles from Artsakh’s borders at its
closest point, is a target. Azerbaijani officials have signaled that
Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant is a military target. There
exists the distinct possibility of nuclear fallout engulfing the
Caucasus, Middle East, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe.
It is in
the interests of the West to use their influence and leverage with the
Aliyev regime to make peace, free all political prisoners, and hold free
and fair elections. Failure to comply ought to result in sanctions such
as asset freezes, travel bans, and the suspension of Western-financed
projects in Azerbaijan. Just as RFE/RL served as a beacon of hope and as
a remedy against atomization for millions of Soviet and Eastern Bloc
citizens during the Cold War, it also provided an alternative for
everyday Azerbaijanis from regime propaganda. Baku’s closure of the
RFE/RL must not go unanswered. A two-bit dictatorship cannot overcome
Western resolve, just as surely as the Soviet Union could not and did
not.
"The Hill," January 13, 2015
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